Banking on some positive seasonality


Banking on some positive seasonality

With September almost here it's time to put the trunks away in a drawer, deflate the lilo and put the sunglasses back in the case. If the British weather isn't enough of a reminder summer is over and there's some serious work to be done.

The next few months are going to be crucial for the channel and will be tough. October will be all about cuts as the details of the spending review become clear and that is likely to have an impact on November. Come December and some of us will be talking of Santa while others moan about the looming VAT rate rise.

For those in the public sector things are already difficult but the government is not full of idiots (Eton and Oxford would have a thing or two to say about it if that claim was made) and so there has to be some recognition that too much bad news might be damaging.

The hard medicine that we have all had to swallow was delivered in the emergency budget but it has continued to drag as the details are waited for. There has been little to distract from the gloom with even England's success on the cricket field being overshadowed by a betting scandal.

But as the views of a selection of industry players on page 10 shows there is still a huge amount of optimism and if any sector knows how to navigate through choppy waters it is the channel.

The channel has seen the green shoots and refused to be thrown off its course by the gloom and doom and as the industry gears up for the most important quarter things are looking fairly stable. The number of insolvencies are down, credit insurance is apparently coming back on track and the technological arguments for an upgrade are being led by a strong-selling Windows 7.

As the heads go down and the hard work begins the hope is that the next few months will be a return to seasonal spending that it strong for the channel. Cameron and company need to talk things up but they can leave the hard work of driving the recovery to the channel.

This was first published in August 2010

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