It seems 2009 is going to be another big step up for the component market, with another version of Windows on its way, and the inevitable upgrades that follow, and the release of several core technologies presenting an opportunity for some major upgrade purchases.
Chips
Intel and AMD will be bringing in a new host of technologies for 2009, although Intel still seems to have the upper hand, with the 32nm Westmere platform due some time in 2009. As if quad-core processors were not enough, it looks like both AMD and Intel could release eight-core processors for high-end users before the end of 2009.
Last year’s new kid on the block was Intel’s Atom processor, which was a hit with entry-level and ultra mobile users, with figures showing Atom sales almost doubling the growth of the processor market to over 15% year on year, pushing Intel’s market share to 87% in the mobile market, according to IDC.
The trend looks set to continue this year, with dual-core versions of the chip already out and significant speed bumps on their way and the potential for a quad-core version later in the year.
Motherboards
In the motherboard market there is potential for a big hit for AMD users with a shift to the new AM3 platform (although AM3-based processors will work in the older AM2+ boards). This shift should start to drag down the price of DDR3 memory as requirement for it rises. With quite a few new core technologies for motherboards being released this might not be as big an issue for AMD and it will be interesting to see some of the new boards when they arrive.
AMD does not only do processors, of course, and the battle between what was ATI and Nvidia is now even closer, with both companies bringing out new graphics platforms and taking advantage not only of the 40nm processes but also DDR3 support which will become the standard during 2009.
The trend of putting multiple GPUs on one card to create high-end monsters will continue and some awesome performance should be delivered by both the new RD890 from AMD and the GT216 from Nvidia.
If you do not think you will need all this power, wait until you see what can be done with the soon to be released DirectX 11, the first version of DirectX to be multi-threaded so it can finally take best advantage of multiple core processors.
Memory
As ever, with increasing software complexity and ever more “friendly” user interfaces you will need even more RAM, with 2GB being the standard now and many “performance systems” coming with 4GB. Since ReadyBoost technology appears not to have lived up to its hype, it seems plenty of users will be increasing their memory or upgrading with new memory purchases as people finally move to DDR3.
One of the new core technologies due towards the end of 2009 is USB 3.0. With 10x the speed and almost 10x the power capacity of its predecessor, and full backwards compatibility, USB 3.0 has the ability to enable huge changes in the way we move and handle data. It is so fast that a standard hard drive cannot keep up with it – to put it in perspective, you could transfer a full HD movie (roughly 25GB) in just over one minute.
Accessories
With the increase in power you will also be able to run more powerful accessories – fingers crossed for an external 3D graphics accelerator for notebooks, even if it takes two USB 3.0 connectors (yes, I know these have been done before, but they either did not work or required specific connectivity).
The extra transfer speed will come in handy as the increase in storage capacity is set to take another big leap in 2009, with 3.5in desktop hard drives due to step up to between 2.5 terabytes and 4 terabytes, depending on which manufacturer you talk to, and 2.5in notebook drives getting up to 750GB – a lot of storage space by anyone’s standards.
The rise in popularity of solid state drives will continue, with capacities of up to 512GB by the end of 2009, the only constraint being the cost over standard hard drives which will start to dwindle as production ramps up.
Opportunities
That is some of the technology to look forward to in the year ahead, but what opportunities does it offer?
With many people feeling the impact of the financial downturn, entry-level Atom-based units such as Asus’ E-box will grow as a market segment, and the likewise equipped Eee-PC and its clones will start to pressure mainstream notebook sales.
High-end purchases will continue to be dominated by gaming software, with “grade A” titles triggering a raft of processor, memory and graphics card upgrades. Keep an eye out for Bioshock 2, Starcraft 2, Halo Wars and Resident Evil 5 as they all look as though they will need some significant horsepower to run properly.
To end where we began, with Windows 7, which is still rumoured to be due in late 2009, although many industry insiders are resigned to a 2010 release for the much-needed Windows Vista replacement. It seems that component sales will have to stand on their own technological feet and not get the benefit of a big OS change, so here is hoping the major technology vendors can deliver their new products on time and in sufficient quantities.