17 April 2008
by Alex Scroxton
Microsoft’s Windows model has come under intense scrutiny in the wake of warnings that the traditional operating system could die a lingering death in the face of code-heavy platforms and increased confidence in cloud computing.
Speculation also mounted about the future of Vista, the latest version of Windows, when Microsoft chairman Bill Gates appeared to drop the strongest hint yet that it was rushing Vista’s replacement, Windows 7, to the market.
Speaking at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank, Gates said: "That’ll be some time in the next year or so that we’ll have a new version."
A few days later, Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald argued that Windows was so code-heavy it was in danger of collapse and called for a radical redesign. They said it was impossible for Microsoft to introduce meaningful changes in new generations of the operating system because it contained so much excess code.
But Microsoft said the code was vital to ensure backward compatibility between versions.
"Unfortunately, the data presented was based on a small sampling of Gartner conference attendees and doesn’t align with more rigorous research, which shows backward compatibility is an important priority for customers," the vendor claimed.
Microsoft believed it was "contradictory" to say compatibility with older versions of Windows kept customers from migrating from XP to Vista while at the same time suggesting the solution was to rebuild from the ground up.
A further blow looks likely as cloud computing becomes a realistic proposition. Speaking last week after Salesforce.com and Google integrated Salesforce’s CRM package into Google’s Apps platform, Salesforce boss Marc Benioff hailed the transformation of the industry. "The end of software is here," he proclaimed.
One channel source commented: "People are really starting to sit up and take notice of the cloud and if that gets up and running, you don’t need Windows. The whole premise of the OS as we’ve known it for 15 to 20 years has gone."
Recurve Technologies managing director Colin Symington predicted the move to virtualisation and cloud computing would affect the industry in the next decade. He warned the trend could scupper not just Microsoft’s plans, but also those of Cisco and competitors — and spell the end for many resellers.
"What can I then sell my customer, unless I have in-house hosting?" he remarked.
Jeremy Davies, managing director at analyst firm Context, believed that if Microsoft wanted to replace Vista within the timescales quoted by Gates, it would be plausible.
"I would think that due to the lukewarm reception Vista has received, it’s trying to bring [Windows 7] forward," he said.
According to Davies, Gates’ revelation could stymie Vista for good: "As far as Microsoft launching in, say, Q4 2009 goes, logic suggests any business thinking of upgrading from XP to Vista in a large-scale deployment should now think twice."
In an official statement, Microsoft restated its commitment to Vista, which has performed well in the consumer market but has come to be seen as a byword for failure among business users: "We’re focused on helping customers today get the most value from their PCs using Vista and we’re encouraged by the response and adoption so far," it said.
One reseller commented: "We’re being pushed to adopt Vista still, although we haven’t had a huge rush." He refuted suggestions that Microsoft privately regarded Vista as a disaster that it was time to bury, adding he was sceptical Windows 7 was being brought forward.
"We have no visibility of it yet, and our managers in Microsoft don’t either," he said.
Microsoft has slated a release date for Windows 7 of spring 2010, three years after Vista’s launch. In common with previous generations, the channel could expect to see beta editions in the wild in 10 to 12 months.
